Strong economic rebound not get why the stock market up

 By the way: Many people fear falling property prices can be understood ,Bailey UGG boots
think about it, and now price is down 50% compared with October 2008 back to the lower level of the Chinese economy can not stand? Banks can not stand? gab
2009 年 6 trillion yuan real estate sales, 50% of bank credit even if the 3 trillion mortgage rates also fell 50% to be broken this bad up to 3 trillion. now 50 trillion of bank assets also carry not live this three trillion joke!
strong economic rebound in the stock market why not go up a lot of Laojiang Hu
level of investment experts kept asking me the same question, why are blue-chip earnings ratio has dropped to the lowest in the region in history Why not get on the stock market is up.
lot of people think the reason the money was on the market now have no money, so these elephants do not move up. But the liquidity it has always been regarded as the money flows, the more more money flows. In fact, the market has never been short of money .2007 regulation so tight that once a month up the reserve ratio, or the rush of money into the stock market.
So, the key is to guide the flow of money expected, this is fundamental.
PE is very low, but this thing has a premise that the calculation results we assume that the current rate of growth continues in the future to maintain long-term, is even more optimistic about the future, there is the assumption that the rate of acceleration. The real smart investment who to start buying stocks, the obviously do not follow this assumption, that is, the more you buy the lower price-earnings ratio is not a the origin of the rising value of the driving force.
Clearly, the present stock market does not go up mainly because of the previous trend of the seller of the Institute's rise to 4,000 this year, more than several reasons, and now seem to be a problem, leading to the buyer is not simple to present and future can be expected for some time a simple extrapolation of the strong indicators of increased power and the formation of the valuation.
whether you admit it or not, the Chinese stock market (even the Chinese economy) is really the backbone of the real estate. because strong focus on real estate, only the so-called cyclical industry's recovery. last May pulled the stock market from 2500 to 3500, apparently following the logic in taking the main line. China's blue-chip stock market is essentially a synonym for a cyclical industry. real estate bubble will stimulate demand, but also enhance the performance of the company. finance, retail, construction,UGG shoes, materials, and other areas of the company will benefit. a huge multiplier effect of the real estate bubble, but it lasted longer.
now for a real estate regulation straw thrown out, may not be very substantial impact on prices, as sales of 6 trillion yuan last year, developers hold the funds withdrawn from circulation in the crunch a year or so small, but real estate related rapid cooling down of economic activity. face an uncertain future, developers will try to control the amount of new construction and extension of construction period to avoid the pressure of high debt.
Thus, the stock market has been deprived of the blue-chip equivalent to the spirit so, the data can imagine in a quarter year on year is likely to more than 20%.
United States since the last three quarters fill inventory effect is stronger than expected, is gradually moving from retail to wholesale and manufacturing divergence pass, I estimate that effect can continue until the middle of this year.
back to trade shares, the buyer dare rational short-term simple extrapolation of the formation of strong export valuation? market choices for themselves. at least most people are still worried that the United States late next year Inventory effects of economic compensation due to the economic and fiscal stimulus failure, the double bottom (Double Dip) is a high probability event.
seller touted China's consumption is based on the Government to upgrade the clearly recognized the problem of excess production within the economy is sharpened, but also understand the current approach to security with increased investment in growth and the future will be even more excess capacity a contradiction, so the government has suppressed the outbreak of the crisis of overproduction as a macro The central task. Indeed the Government is doing On the one hand lift consumption, hoping to change the overall supply and demand imbalance in this situation, production, circulation, distribution, consumer society of the four aspects of large-scale production, China's problem lies in distribution, we have two separate areas in the production and consumption fuss, avoiding the core of the reform of income distribution.
distribution around the core of the reform may not change anything.
pressure around the reform of distribution capacity, would generate new excess capacity (the output of energy - rising unemployment - reduced income - consumption declined); even as China's industrial capital in the country no way, can only be driven into the virtual lead to asset bubbles, or the exodus. can not solve the problem of excess production.
Similarly,cheap UGG boots, the distribution around reforms to stimulate consumption, short-term increase in consumer spending can only be moved forward to the future, to stimulate the consumption peak after the policy has led inevitably connected to the next stage of a consumer downturn. can not increase the consumption rate.
If financial permits, I think the main consumer policy through financial subsidies will continue, but a little common sense people are concerned about the economy from the The.
liquidity has touched the nerve of the Chinese stock market sentiment, despite the credit and stock market itself is not like a lot of people might think (the credit market stocks), so a direct link.
Therefore, we for the central bank monetary policy very seriously. It seems the central bank determines the ups and downs of the stock market. In fact, China's monetary expansion is almost entirely microscopic mechanisms (banks plus leverage) completed last year, the central bank's base money growth has just reached double figures Most are in the month of the year drained the state, but the bank has released nearly 10 trillion of credit, resulting in a rebound velocity of money M1 and M2 in China created a tight ten years the amount of days (29% and 34%). < br> Now the micro mechanisms have been strictly locked (CBRC constraints and provision of capital increase), to decrease the velocity of money, monetary expansion this year will certainly be significantly down. This is no doubt.
printing of a widespread view is that because the government-led economic stimulus, so the government can not substantially tighten liquidity, .
you have to analyze the enterprise itself to prevent this year's tight, how much memory reserved for the end.
last year there was a significant increase in corporate deposits phenomenon is very striking, full-year growth of 5 trillion yuan, the growth rate up to 38% of the deposits growth rate than the higher 8-9 percent. This proves that a lot of money and credit companies have not been expended, there is no capital formation. There is also that urban fixed asset investment in the sources of funds, funds from the credit statistics in scale than the long-term bank loans is much higher loan size, up to 1.6-1.7 trillion yuan. but in normal years, these two are almost the same size. It is a very last strange phenomenon, only that, there are a lot of money is not business use, not become a complete fixed asset investment amount. So even if this credit crunch that the scale of 7 trillion yuan in the following, it will not result in 4 trillion of investment projects the 10% buy stocks, sell stocks exceeded 20%, the operating target is the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen into that and found that from 1996 to date, the Shanghai index up to 4.6 times the rate of return, while the Shenzhen Component Index rate of return is up to 22 times.
I think the mainstream market funds face of this emotional monster, will awe.
be honest, I am not pessimistic about this year's stock investments. Last December, I had about However, if 2009 is not bad money when the market, then this is the dwelling market. not much of a trend.
say if a certain shape, I tend to present V-year trend.
first half of the policy constraints, to drive down the slope of inflation; and in the second half as the economy slowing, prices slowed down, or reproduction of loose credit and investment. Therefore, a rebound in the stock market.
trend is not obvious, but the theme is not a lack of investment.
the integration of central enterprises should make an issue of .2009 would be investors in December SASAC director Li Rongrong say, 2010 to actively promote the business listed on our core business assets, or the overall market, to promote the advantages of resources to focus on blue-chip listed companies to raise capital in the securities business of proportion.
regional economy is the best theme. from the beginning of Xinjiang, Tibet's ethnic revitalization of New River to Chongqing two (Jiangbei mouth),UGG bailey button, the Shanghai World Expo, the other theme of the longest region has a huge domestic industry from the transfer of opportunities. you go and see to the west, to Chongqing, Chengdu to see, to go take a look at Hefei, China echelon transfer and upgrading of the industry it can support China's future GDP growth soared for many years.